Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-10-01
The Story
The tape went defensive: $367.1M in unusual put notional, led by Health Care ($172.1M) and index hedges in SPY ($88.1M), QQQ ($74.0M), and IWM ($55.7M). Yesterday's conviction bets were mostly flat, but the puts on GOOG (-3.19%), LLY (-0.76%), and AAPL (-0.78%) paid off. The big shift is ACN, which jumped +15.84% to $212.40 and is now being faded with $6.8M in puts against $7.2M in calls. The day's largest single print was an AMGN put — $136.4M at the 460 strike, -13% OTM for Oct 16. IWM carries TRO confirmation on the bearish side, while SPY, QQQ, AAPL, and ACN are TRO-confirmed bullish.
Bearish Bets to Watch
COST (score 73) — $13.1M in puts across 24 contracts, with 238x V/OI on the 925 strike (Nov 6). Notional nearly tripled from $4.8M yesterday. No TRO confirmation.
LLY (score 73) — $15.0M in puts, 188x V/OI, clustered 4-5% OTM on 1200-1210 strikes (Oct 30 / Nov 6). Spot fell -0.76% today; yesterday's LLY put was right.
AMGN — $136.4M put at 460 (-13% OTM, Oct 16), 6.3x V/OI, the single largest put print of the day. Spot -3.43% to $407.24.
IWM (score 55, TRO ✅) — $55.7M in puts across 33 contracts, defensive signal. TRO confirmed; the cleanest bearish index setup.
AAPL (score 57) — $8.4M puts, 64x V/OI, with $4.27M concentrated on the 350 strike (Oct 23, -5.9%). But AAPL's TRO is on the bullish side.
Bullish Bets to Watch
JPM (score 75) — $4.9M in calls, 175x V/OI, with $2.22M on the 332 strike (Oct 9). Spot +0.75% today. No TRO confirmation.
SPY (score 59, TRO ✅) — $81.6M in calls, 319x V/OI, centered on the 765 strike (Oct 9). TRO confirmed.
C (score 58) — $5.5M in calls, 155x V/OI on 123/130/132 strikes (Oct 16). Spot fell -1.95% today, working against the bet.
QQQ (score 52, TRO ✅) — $78.3M in calls, 54x V/OI, with $7.6M on the 754 strike (Oct 9). TRO confirmed.
ACN (score 49, TRO ✅) — $7.2M in calls on top of a +15.84% move; bullish notional rose from $4.9M yesterday. TRO confirmed, but the $6.8M in puts says traders see this as the top.
The Oracle Read
The strongest bearish setups are COST and LLY — both score 73 with near-term, high-multiple put clusters and no TRO to contradict them. On the bullish side, JPM (75) plus the financials group (C, GS, BAC) is the cleanest sector call flow. Small caps are the one place the tape is unambiguously defensive: IWM is TRO-confirmed bearish even as SPY and QQQ carry TRO-confirmed bullish call flow.
Names to Watch at the Open
- ACN — fade/gap decision after +15.84%; $6.8M puts vs $7.2M calls.
- COST — 910 support; $13.1M puts, 238x on 925.
- LLY — 1200 strike; $15.0M puts, 188x V/OI.
- AMGN — 460 put print ($136.4M); spot -3.43% into the open.
- NVDA — two-sided: $10.6M calls at 218/230 vs $7.8M puts at 242/225.
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | Consumer Staples | $13.0M | 238× | 4 | $11.1M | 910–925 | 2026-11-06 | 73 🔥 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| LLY | Health Care | $15.0M | 188× | 5 | $11.1M | 1190–1210 | 2026-10-30 | 73 🔥 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $8.4M | 64× | 2 | $4.7M | 345–350 | 2026-10-23 | 57 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $55.7M | 77× | 5 | $29.4M | 262–267 | 2026-11-20 | 55 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| META | Communication Services | $7.1M | 32× | 5 | $5.9M | 715–725 | 2026-10-16 | 54 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $74.0M | 739× | 15 | $34.3M | 731–745 | 2026-11-06 | 50 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $18.0M | 124× | 3 | $12.0M | 355–360 | 2026-10-09 | 49 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| XOM | Energy | $3.1M | 1188× | 2 | $1.4M | 165–167.5 | 2026-11-06 | 47 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $88.1M | 301× | 14 | $36.7M | 750–765 | 2026-11-20 | 46 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| ACN | Technology | $6.8M | 256× | 2 | $2.9M | 207.5–210 | 2026-11-20 | 46 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| NVDA | Technology | $50.0M | 659× | 2 | $14.5M | 242.5–245 | 2026-10-09 | 44 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $5.5M | 77× | 4 | $2.2M | 605–615 | 2026-10-16 | 39 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AVGO | Technology | $7.7M | 212× | 3 | $3.0M | 337.5–342.5 | 2026-10-09 | 37 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| TGT | Consumer Discretionary | $3.9M | 21× | 1 | $3.9M | 155 | 2026-12-18 | 37 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| INTC | Technology | $2.1M | 25× | 3 | $1.3M | 119–121 | 2026-10-09 | 36 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | Financials | $4.9M | 175× | 3 | $3.6M | 330–335 | 2026-10-09 | 75 🚀 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $81.6M | 319× | 14 | $69.6M | 760–775 | 2026-10-09 | 59 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| C | Financials | $5.5M | 155× | 3 | $2.7M | 130–132 | 2026-10-16 | 58 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $78.3M | 54× | 15 | $51.3M | 740–754 | 2026-10-09 | 52 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GS | Financials | $7.8M | 60× | 3 | $3.1M | 850–865 | 2026-10-09 | 51 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $12.2M | 31× | 3 | $8.2M | 330–335 | 2026-10-09 | 51 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| ACN | Technology | $7.2M | 40× | 2 | $3.3M | 182.5–185 | 2026-10-16 | 49 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| NFLX | Communication Services | $4.1M | 94× | 2 | $2.3M | 68–69 | 2026-10-16 | 49 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $22.7M | 773× | 8 | $12.4M | 277–282.5 | 2026-10-09 | 42 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| LMT | Industrials | $0.8M | 39× | 3 | $0.8M | 430–440 | 2026-10-30 | 42 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AVGO | Technology | $4.4M | 47× | 3 | $2.4M | 345–350 | 2026-11-06 | 42 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $36.5M | 59× | 3 | $18.8M | 355–360 | 2026-10-09 | 41 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| BAC | Financials | $2.5M | 26× | 2 | $2.2M | 54–55 | 2026-11-20 | 40 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| HD | Consumer Discretionary | $1.9M | 160× | 3 | $0.9M | 280–285 | 2026-12-18 | 39 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| AMGN | Health Care | $3.0M | 15× | 2 | $3.0M | 420–425 | 2026-11-20 | 38 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 13 | 1.90 | 0.71 | $172.1M | 84039 | 🔴 Defensive |
| Technology | 15 | 0.54 | 0.53 | $92.3M | 128678 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.64 | 1.03 | $52.6M | 72797 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.53 | 0.87 | $16.0M | 32276 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 0.73 | 0.82 | $15.8M | 17281 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 0.91 | 1.30 | $10.2M | 63894 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.40 | 1.17 | $4.9M | 4803 | 🟡 Caution |
| Energy | 3 | 0.85 | 0.54 | $3.2M | 8057 | 🟡 Caution |
| Materials | 1 | 0.56 | 1.18 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.54 | 1.07 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 1.40 | 1.61 | $88.1M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 1.07 | 1.27 | $74.0M | 🟡 Caution |
| IWM | 2.11 | 2.47 | $55.7M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 460 | 2026-10-16 | 26060 | 4125 | 6.3× | $136.4M | -13.0% |
| AMZN | 280 | 2026-10-16 | 4506 | 1975 | 2.3× | $14.5M | -12.8% |
| MDT | 87.5 | 2026-12-18 | 20003 | 10450 | 1.9× | $9.9M | -1.2% |
| NVDA | 242.5 | 2026-10-09 | 6511 | 45 | 144.7× | $7.8M | -5.0% |
| NVDA | 225 | 2026-12-18 | 6851 | 4358 | 1.6× | $7.7M | 2.6% |
| NVDA | 245 | 2026-10-09 | 4701 | 174 | 27.0× | $6.6M | -6.0% |
| NVDA | 230 | 2026-10-09 | 18857 | 9765 | 1.9× | $6.4M | 0.5% |
| IBM | 235 | 2026-11-20 | 3164 | 525 | 6.0× | $6.0M | -4.2% |
| MCD | 260 | 2026-10-16 | 2057 | 418 | 4.9× | $5.8M | -12.1% |
| NVDA | 247.5 | 2026-10-09 | 2636 | 4 | 659.0× | $4.4M | -7.1% |
| AAPL | 350 | 2026-10-23 | 2062 | 32 | 64.4× | $4.3M | -5.9% |
| TSLA | 355 | 2026-10-09 | 4802 | 1178 | 4.1× | $4.2M | -0.2% |
| NVDA | 240 | 2026-10-09 | 4350 | 753 | 5.8× | $4.1M | -3.9% |
| META | 720 | 2026-10-16 | 2264 | 1205 | 1.9× | $4.0M | 0.8% |
| TGT | 155 | 2026-12-18 | 4075 | 192 | 21.2× | $3.8M | 1.1% |
Total unusual put notional: $367.1M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.