Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-09-28
The Story
Broad down day: SPY -0.76%, QQQ -1.15%, IWM -0.71%, with 64 of roughly 100 tracked names closing lower. Yesterday's bearish conviction bets were 8 of 10 right (MSFT, AAPL, IWM, SPY, QQQ, TSLA, META, ORCL all fell), while the bullish side went 8 of 10 wrong — only WMT rose. Today the tape doubles down defensively: index puts dominate again (SPY $62.0M, QQQ $85.8M, IWM $29.2M) and all three ETFs are flagged "defensive". IWM is the highest-conviction bear at score 68 with TRO confirmation and a 2022x V/OI print on the 266 strike. The single largest print is a $109.1M AMGN 460 put (10-16), but AMGN rose +0.90% yesterday, so that position is already against the move.
Bearish Bets to Watch
IWM (score 68) — the tape's top conviction. $29.2M in unusual puts across 31 contracts; the 266 strike (11-20, +5.0% OTM) printed $9.2M at 819.5x V/OI and the 268 (10-16) added $8.4M. TRO-confirmed, PCR_v 3.06, and spot is $279.98, down -5.46% over 49 days.
SPY (score 58) — $62.0M in puts across 92 contracts, led by the 728 strike (11-20) at $8.6M on 519x V/OI and the 745 (10-09) at $7.2M on 31x. Spot $765.33; yesterday's SPY put bet was right (-0.76%).
QQQ (score 45) — $85.8M in puts, the largest index put notional. The 720 (10-30) holds $22.7M and the 690 (10-30) $13.7M, both clustered just below spot $736.45. Yesterday's QQQ put bet was right (-1.15%).
TSLA (score 47) — $10.9M in puts on a -3.96% close to $357.36, with the 360 (10-09) leading at $3.5M. Yesterday's TSLA put bet was right (-3.96%); the name is also carrying $38.5M in calls, so it is two-way into the open.
AMGN (score 33) — one trade, not a theme: $109.1M on the 460 put (10-16, -9.9% OTM) at just 6.3x V/OI. This single print is essentially the entire $114.4M Health Care sector put notional, and it is underwater with AMGN at $418.38.
Bullish Bets to Watch
SPY (score 54) — $29.1M in calls, 220x V/OI across 14 strikes, TRO-confirmed. The same index is buying puts ($62M) and calls ($29M) — a hedge book, not a direction.
AAPL (score 50) — $4.8M in calls at 170x V/OI, TRO-confirmed, but it also carries $9.7M in bearish puts (score 45). Yesterday's AAPL put was right (-0.77%); today's call buyers are fading that drop from $338.40.
INTC (score 49) — $13.7M in calls, 608x V/OI on the 123 strike (10-23), TRO-confirmed. INTC fell -5.59% to $116.12 today, and it also has $7.1M in bearish puts — calls are positioned for a bounce off the two-day -8.8% slide from $127.26.
GOOGL (score 45) — $43.5M in calls, concentrated in a $41.2M 355 strike (11-20) print at 15x V/OI. Spot $342.77; yesterday's GOOGL call bet was flat (-0.31%).
AMD (score 48) — $10.9M in calls across 5 strikes, TRO-confirmed, but also $25.5M in puts (score 37). Spot fell -3.58% to $607.88 today; the 610 (10-09) is the near-term battleground.
The Oracle Read
Yesterday's validation gives the put side the edge: bearish bets hit 8/10 and bullish bets missed 8/10. The tape's strongest setups are IWM downside (score 68, TRO-confirmed) and the INTC/AMD bounce calls (both TRO-confirmed after sharp drops). Small caps look most exposed — IWM has the highest conviction, the highest V/OI, and the cleanest downtrend, so tomorrow's test is whether $280 breaks.
Names to Watch at the Open
- IWM — downside; 266 put wall (11-20), watch $280 break, TRO-confirmed.
- SPY — defensive both ways; 728 put wall, 765 is the level to hold.
- QQQ — $22.7M at 720 puts, $736.45 spot pivot.
- TSLA — two-way; -3.96% close vs $38.5M calls, 360 strike is the line.
- INTC — bounce calls at 123-130 after -5.59%; needs to hold $116.
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Index ETF | $29.2M | 2022× | 4 | $24.7M | 266–271 | 2026-11-20 | 68 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| SPY | Index ETF | $62.0M | 519× | 13 | $22.8M | 756–771 | 2026-11-20 | 58 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $10.9M | 51× | 3 | $6.2M | 357.5–362.5 | 2026-10-09 | 47 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $85.8M | 183× | 12 | $51.8M | 720–734 | 2026-10-30 | 45 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $9.7M | 41× | 3 | $5.7M | 340–345 | 2026-10-09 | 45 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| INTC | Technology | $7.1M | 193× | 3 | $2.9M | 114–116 | 2026-10-09 | 40 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $25.5M | 166× | 2 | $15.1M | 560–570 | 2026-11-20 | 37 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $2.1M | 69× | 4 | $1.1M | 512.5–520 | 2026-11-20 | 37 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| NVDA | Technology | $11.4M | 168× | 2 | $6.1M | 230–232.5 | 2026-10-09 | 37 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMGN | Health Care | $109.1M | 6× | 1 | $109.1M | 460 | 2026-10-16 | 33 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| LMT | Industrials | $1.1M | 63× | 2 | $1.0M | 540–545 | 2026-10-30 | 30 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $15.8M | 15× | 2 | $5.7M | 705–715 | 2026-10-30 | 30 | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| CRM | Technology | $1.6M | 244× | 2 | $0.5M | 225–227.5 | 2026-11-06 | 29 | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| GOOG | Communication Services | $1.0M | 49× | 3 | $0.4M | 315–320 | 2026-11-06 | 29 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $1.7M | 78× | 2 | $0.5M | 300–305 | 2026-11-06 | 27 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | Index ETF | $29.1M | 220× | 14 | $22.2M | 765–780 | 2026-10-09 | 54 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| AAPL | Technology | $4.8M | 170× | 2 | $1.5M | 290–295 | 2026-10-07 | 50 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| INTC | Technology | $13.7M | 608× | 3 | $4.5M | 123–125 | 2026-10-23 | 49 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| ORCL | Technology | $3.9M | 37× | 3 | $2.4M | 133–135 | 2026-10-30 | 48 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| AMD | Technology | $10.9M | 168× | 5 | $5.0M | 600–610 | 2026-10-09 | 48 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $38.5M | 414× | 3 | $15.7M | 360–365 | 2026-10-30 | 46 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $43.5M | 68× | 2 | $41.3M | 350–355 | 2026-11-20 | 45 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $23.7M | 47× | 3 | $13.6M | 750–760 | 2026-10-09 | 43 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| IWM | Index ETF | $9.1M | 134× | 6 | $4.1M | 280–285 | 2026-10-16 | 43 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| COST | Consumer Staples | $4.3M | 86× | 5 | $2.1M | 915–930 | 2026-10-30 | 43 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $32.1M | 239× | 13 | $13.8M | 731–745 | 2026-10-16 | 41 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $4.3M | 31× | 2 | $2.9M | 520–530 | 2026-10-09 | 36 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| NFLX | Communication Services | $1.6M | 28× | 2 | $1.1M | 69–70 | 2026-10-09 | 34 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| XOM | Energy | $7.4M | 4× | 1 | $7.4M | 170 | 2026-11-20 | 33 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| BA | Industrials | $4.5M | 246× | 2 | $1.4M | 187.5–190 | 2026-12-18 | 32 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 13 | 0.92 | 0.58 | $114.4M | 34062 | 🟡 Caution |
| Technology | 15 | 0.61 | 0.56 | $64.4M | 89495 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.46 | 0.80 | $19.8M | 19329 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.44 | 1.10 | $13.0M | 14498 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.98 | 1.33 | $4.7M | 5547 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 0.70 | 1.22 | $3.8M | 11397 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 0.61 | 0.71 | $3.3M | 3655 | 🟡 Caution |
| Energy | 3 | 0.30 | 0.56 | $0.4M | 2131 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Materials | 1 | 0.42 | 2.01 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.62 | 1.41 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2.29 | 1.46 | $62.0M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 1.85 | 1.30 | $85.8M | 🔴 Defensive |
| IWM | 3.06 | 2.50 | $29.2M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 460 | 2026-10-16 | 26060 | 4125 | 6.3× | $109.1M | -9.9% |
| AMD | 560 | 2026-11-20 | 4731 | 691 | 6.8× | $13.3M | 7.9% |
| META | 705 | 2026-10-30 | 1552 | 122 | 12.7× | $4.8M | 1.5% |
| TSLA | 360 | 2026-10-09 | 3139 | 737 | 4.3× | $3.5M | -0.7% |
| META | 720 | 2026-12-18 | 553 | 361 | 1.5× | $2.9M | -0.6% |
| META | 675 | 2026-10-16 | 3198 | 1543 | 2.1× | $2.8M | 5.7% |
| NVDA | 230 | 2026-10-09 | 4919 | 2762 | 1.8× | $2.6M | -0.5% |
| ACN | 170 | 2026-11-20 | 1889 | 323 | 5.8× | $2.1M | 2.6% |
| NVDA | 225 | 2026-10-09 | 5851 | 3163 | 1.8× | $1.9M | 1.7% |
| TSLA | 340 | 2026-10-30 | 1724 | 333 | 5.2× | $1.8M | 4.9% |
| AAPL | 350 | 2026-10-09 | 1437 | 431 | 3.3× | $1.8M | -3.4% |
| AAPL | 345 | 2026-10-16 | 1624 | 808 | 2.0× | $1.6M | -2.0% |
| AAPL | 340 | 2026-10-09 | 2738 | 274 | 10.0× | $1.6M | -0.5% |
| META | 665 | 2026-10-30 | 904 | 149 | 6.1× | $1.4M | 7.1% |
| AAPL | 345 | 2026-11-20 | 894 | 437 | 2.0× | $1.4M | -2.0% |
Total unusual put notional: $223.7M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.