Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-09-14
The Story
The market split down the middle: semis and banks sold off hard (SMCI -8.26%, INTC -5.38%, BAC -5.14%, AVGO -4.72%, AMD -4.41%) while mega-cap software and staples rallied (ACN +6.06%, INTU +5.50%, ADBE +5.26%, CRM +4.69%, WMT +1.84%). Yesterday's bearish put bets were mostly right — ORCL, QQQ, TSLA, AVGO, INTC, and GS all fell as expected — while the bullish call bets mostly failed, with only META (+2.73%) and UNH (+1.25%) paying off. Today's tape shows $86.7M in unusual put notional across all ten sectors, with every index ETF flagged defensive (SPY PCR_v 1.29, QQQ 1.35, IWM 2.69). The biggest single new conviction is NVDA: $53.7M in Nov 230 calls (9% OTM), the largest individual call print of the day.
Bearish Bets to Watch
IWM (score 68) — small-cap put wall. $35.5M across 16 contracts, led by $17.78M on the Oct-16 275 put (4.5% OTM) and $10.71M on the 273 strike at 34x V/OI. PCR_v sits at 2.69, the most defensive read on the board. Yesterday's $38.3M IWM put bet went flat (-0.42%), but the 39-day trajectory is down 2.79% from 296.14 to 287.89 and the put flow is not letting up.
META (score 63) — post-rally top call. $10.9M in puts across 38 contracts, anchored by $3.89M on the Oct-02 655 strike (33.5x V/OI, 1.6% OTM). Yesterday's $7.1M put bet was wrong — META rose +2.73% to 665.64 — yet today's flow doubles down on the downside at 655, right under spot. No TRO confirmation.
MSFT (score 52, bearish) vs MSFT (score 52, bullish) — two-way fight. Put side is small ($2.4M, 468x V/OI on 10 contracts, largest $0.91M on the Sep-25 500 put), but the call side is $43.0M across 3 strikes at 2558x V/OI, including $26.9M on the Nov-20 535 call (10x V/OI, 5.8% OTM). Spot rose +2.05% to 505.72 after a +26.82% 40-day run. The call flow has TRO confirmation; the put flow does not. Net: the money is on continuation.
TSLA (score 50) — $9.9M in puts on a 3-strike cluster right at spot. Largest prints: $3.14M on the Sep-25 365 put (1.7% ITM) and $2.48M on the 360 put, with a $0.27M lone bet on the Oct-30 350 at 154x V/OI. Yesterday's put bet was right (-1.77%), and spot is down 5.56% over 40 days despite the +15.6M call flow on the other side.
QQQ (score 48) — index-level hedge, $54.4M across 89 contracts and 15 strikes over 20x V/OI. Key prints: $8.73M on the Oct-16 713 put, $8.28M on the Oct-02 710 put, $5.80M on the Nov-20 625 put (12% OTM). Yesterday's QQQ put bet was right (-0.67%). PCR_v 1.35 with spot down only 0.67% — this is protection, not a crash call.
Bullish Bets to Watch
ADBE (score 84) — strongest conviction on the board. $5.6M in calls across 8 contracts after a +5.26% day to 265.58. Core prints: $2.58M on the Oct-30 260 call (192x V/OI) and $2.26M on the Oct-30 265 call (1347x V/OI). No TRO confirmation yet, but spot is +17.13% over 39 days and this is the highest score of the day.
AMZN (score 73) — $16.4M in calls, dominated by one print: $12.94M on the Oct-30 280 call at 633x V/OI (10.4% OTM). Spot fell -1.28% to 253.52 yesterday, and the small $4.7M put flow (score 41) is noise next to this. No TRO confirmation; the 280 strike is the number to clear.
MRK (score 59) — $2.8M in calls, led by $2.20M on the Nov-20 125 call at 52.5x V/OI (13.7% ITM). This is the first unusual bullish activity in MRK in weeks — the evolution table shows $0 on 8 of the last 13 sessions — and spot bounced +0.65% to 144.84. Deep-ITM positioning reads as a directional bet, not a hedge.
NVDA (call print) — $53.7M on the Nov-20 230 call (2.3x V/OI, 9.0% OTM) is the single largest call print of the day, on a day NVDA fell -3.29% to 211.00. The 230 strike is $19 above spot with a Nov expiry; this is a recovery bet after the semi selloff. No TRO confirmation.
SPY (score 54, bullish) — $167.4M in unusual calls, almost all deep ITM: $20.53M on the Oct-09 680 call (1256x V/OI), $14.99M on the 695, $14.35M on the Oct-02 660, $13.71M on the Sep-30 708. These sit 7-14% below spot at 760.75 — consistent with either put-hedge unwinds or large long holders monetizing upside. Simultaneously $46.0M in puts (score 44) and PCR_v 1.29 says the index is fully hedged in both directions.
The Oracle Read
The tape is defensive at the index level — IWM's 2.69 PCR and QQQ/SPY put walls say institutions are paying for downside protection into October — while the single-stock call flow concentrates in the software complex (ADBE, CRM, ACN, INTU, MSFT) that just broke out. The strongest directional setups are ADBE's 1347x call block and NVDA's $53.7M Nov 230 recovery bet, both unconfirmed and both riding Friday's semis-software divergence. Watch whether the deep-ITM SPY calls are genuine accumulation or just position cleanup; if they're real, the dip is bought.
Names to Watch at the Open
- IWM — downside; 275 put wall ($17.78M) is the line, break below 287.89 confirms the 2.69 PCR.
- ADBE — upside; holding 265 keeps the Oct-30 260/265 call block in play, target 285.
- NVDA — upside; $53.7M Nov 230 call needs a bounce off 211 toward 230 to validate.
- META — downside; the 655 put cluster caps the move, failure above 665.64 negates it.
- TSLA — downside; 360-365 put cluster at spot, -1.77% yesterday and momentum still negative.
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Index ETF | $35.4M | 63× | 3 | $28.7M | 273–276 | 2026-10-16 | 68 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| META | Communication Services | $10.9M | 48× | 6 | $7.1M | 652.5–665 | 2026-10-02 | 63 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $2.4M | 468× | 4 | $1.7M | 500–507.5 | 2026-09-25 | 52 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $9.9M | 154× | 3 | $7.1M | 360–365 | 2026-09-25 | 50 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $54.3M | 943× | 15 | $31.6M | 700–714 | 2026-10-16 | 48 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $46.0M | 98× | 5 | $27.1M | 722–737 | 2026-10-16 | 44 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $4.7M | 29× | 1 | $2.2M | 290 | 2026-10-16 | 41 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| ADBE | Technology | $0.9M | 504× | 2 | $0.8M | 262.5–265 | 2026-10-30 | 39 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $1.6M | 329× | 3 | $0.8M | 342.5–347.5 | 2026-09-25 | 39 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $7.6M | 25× | 2 | $5.1M | 330–335 | 2026-10-16 | 39 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GOOG | Communication Services | $2.4M | 145× | 3 | $1.6M | 340–345 | 2026-09-25 | 38 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| INTC | Technology | $2.9M | 44× | 2 | $1.6M | 96–97 | 2026-10-09 | 38 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AVGO | Technology | $2.2M | 101× | 3 | $1.0M | 345–350 | 2026-09-25 | 36 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| AMD | Technology | $8.1M | 53× | 4 | $2.1M | 475–482.5 | 2026-10-09 | 36 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| COP | Energy | $0.3M | 79× | 2 | $0.3M | 138–140 | 2026-09-25 | 35 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | Technology | $5.6M | 1347× | 3 | $4.9M | 260–265 | 2026-10-30 | 84 🚀 | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $16.4M | 634× | 2 | $13.0M | 280–285 | 2026-10-30 | 73 🚀 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| MRK | Health Care | $2.8M | 52× | 2 | $2.3M | 125–126 | 2026-11-20 | 59 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $15.6M | 64× | 3 | $12.5M | 360–365 | 2026-09-25 | 56 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $167.3M | 1256× | 7 | $47.2M | 695–708 | 2026-10-09 | 54 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| META | Communication Services | $22.1M | 157× | 6 | $16.8M | 657.5–670 | 2026-09-25 | 53 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| MSFT | Technology | $43.0M | 2558× | 3 | $27.8M | 535–545 | 2026-11-20 | 52 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $67.2M | 366× | 15 | $42.8M | 698–712 | 2026-11-20 | 50 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| INTC | Technology | $4.3M | 1622× | 2 | $2.3M | 96–97 | 2026-10-09 | 46 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $43.0M | 120× | 6 | $24.3M | 245–250 | 2026-09-30 | 45 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| GS | Financials | $4.8M | 58× | 3 | $1.4M | 910–925 | 2026-09-25 | 45 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $3.6M | 99× | 3 | $1.8M | 332.5–337.5 | 2026-10-30 | 42 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| NVDA | Technology | $80.2M | 240× | 2 | $55.0M | 230–232.5 | 2026-11-20 | 41 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GOOG | Communication Services | $6.8M | 69× | 3 | $2.6M | 350–355 | 2026-10-09 | 39 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $8.2M | 62× | 2 | $3.4M | 360–365 | 2026-10-02 | 38 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 15 | 0.54 | 0.68 | $33.1M | 55699 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.44 | 0.53 | $16.4M | 17836 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.47 | 0.95 | $15.2M | 23686 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 0.98 | 0.81 | $10.4M | 13078 | 🟡 Caution |
| Health Care | 13 | 0.56 | 0.63 | $5.3M | 8700 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.60 | 1.10 | $4.1M | 1739 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 0.32 | 0.60 | $1.7M | 2162 | 🟡 Caution |
| Energy | 3 | 0.36 | 0.37 | $0.5M | 1110 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.77 | 0.82 | $0.1M | 970 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Materials | 1 | 0.88 | 1.35 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 1.29 | 1.64 | $46.0M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 1.35 | 1.79 | $54.3M | 🔴 Defensive |
| IWM | 2.69 | 2.49 | $35.4M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | 655 | 2026-10-02 | 2247 | 67 | 33.5× | $3.9M | 1.6% |
| TSLA | 365 | 2026-09-25 | 2360 | 945 | 2.5× | $3.1M | -1.7% |
| TSLA | 360 | 2026-09-25 | 2409 | 1173 | 2.1× | $2.5M | -0.3% |
| AMZN | 290 | 2026-10-16 | 600 | 352 | 1.7× | $2.2M | -14.4% |
| AAPL | 335 | 2026-10-16 | 1827 | 1189 | 1.5× | $1.8M | -0.6% |
| AMZN | 252.5 | 2026-09-25 | 3540 | 159 | 22.3× | $1.7M | 0.4% |
| AAPL | 340 | 2026-10-16 | 1218 | 731 | 1.7× | $1.5M | -2.1% |
| JPM | 350 | 2026-11-20 | 937 | 605 | 1.5× | $1.3M | 0.1% |
| IBM | 280 | 2026-11-20 | 293 | 132 | 2.2× | $1.1M | -12.4% |
| META | 660 | 2026-09-25 | 708 | 70 | 10.1× | $1.1M | 0.8% |
| GOOG | 345 | 2026-09-25 | 1606 | 362 | 4.4× | $1.0M | 0.2% |
| MDT | 95 | 2026-10-16 | 2223 | 537 | 4.1× | $1.0M | -1.2% |
| AMD | 470 | 2026-10-09 | 689 | 165 | 4.2× | $1.0M | 4.7% |
| MSFT | 500 | 2026-09-25 | 1539 | 815 | 1.9× | $0.9M | 1.1% |
| INTC | 96 | 2026-10-09 | 1503 | 43 | 35.0× | $0.8M | 1.4% |
Total unusual put notional: $86.7M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.