Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-09-25
The Story
Risk-on day: SPY +0.51%, QQQ +0.63%, and mega-cap tech led (MSFT +3.73%, QCOM +3.97%, BKNG +4.12%). Yesterday's bullish calls on MSFT/SPY/QQQ/AVGO/GS paid off, and yesterday's bearish puts on MSFT/QQQ/SPY were wrong — only the META and TSLA put bets hit (-3.40% and -1.56%). But the tape flipped right back to hedging: fresh put buying piled into SPY ($87.3M), QQQ ($92.9M), and a $10.0M MSFT put stack, up from $1.9M yesterday. Health Care's $124.7M put total is nearly all one trade — a $120.5M AMGN put. Net read: the market is being sold into strength.
Bearish Bets to Watch
MSFT (score 61) — put stack rebuilt into yesterday's +3.73% pop to $516.15. $10.0M across 23 contracts, with a 412x V/OI print on the 512 strike (10/09) and size at 520 ($2.54M) and 515 ($1.98M). No TRO confirmation; yesterday's bullish MSFT call bet was right, and today the put flow is betting that was the top.
SPY (score 47) — $87.3M of puts across 105 contracts, the index's heaviest put day since the 09-16 print ($165.3M). Anchored by the 755 strike ($34.61M, 9.2x V/OI) and 725 ($13.76M, 7.5x), both 10/30. No TRO; yesterday's SPY put bet was wrong (+0.51%).
QQQ (score 44) — $92.9M of puts, led by the 725 strike ($36.83M, 19.4x V/OI) and 685 ($13.20M, 8.6x), both 10/30. The 711 strike (10/23) shows 28.7x V/OI. No TRO; yesterday's QQQ put bet was wrong (+0.63%).
AAPL (score 55) — $8.5M of puts concentrated in the 338 strike ($6.71M, 16.9x V/OI, 10/16), right at spot $341.02. No TRO; the stock only moved +1.53% on the day.
AMGN (score 33) — single $120.5M put print on the 460 strike (10/16), 6.3x V/OI, ~11% in-the-money against spot $414.67. This is the entire Health Care put signal and it comes on a +2.09% up day; a deep ITM protective/hedge size, not a fresh directional short.
Bullish Bets to Watch
IWM (score 65) — the tape's highest-conviction call, $6.6M with a 2529x V/OI print across 6 strikes. But IWM also carries $13.4M of puts and a 2.29 put/call ratio — two-sided, with the put skew the bigger notional. Stock was flat (+0.15%).
TSLA (score 48) — $43.5M of calls, the day's largest bull flow, stacked at 370/372/375 (10/09–10/30). Stock fell -1.56% and yesterday's TSLA call bet was wrong, so this is fresh money buying a dip that hasn't turned yet.
META (score 51) — $8.4M of calls with TRO confirmation, but stock fell -3.40% and the bear side is heavier ($30.3M puts vs $8.4M calls). Deep-ITM calls at 648/652/650 (10/05) look defensive. TRO ✅ but the tape is two-sided and the spot move went the bears' way.
GOOGL (score 47) — $6.1M of calls, dominated by a 300-strike deep-ITM print (31.6x V/OI, 12.8% ITM, $3.15M, 10/09). This reads as a hedge/synthetic long, not a clean directional call; spot was +0.44%.
INTC (score 46) — $2.0M of calls with TRO ✅ and a 102x V/OI print, but the stock fell -3.35% and yesterday's INTC call bet was wrong. Watch for the TRO signal to fail.
The Oracle Read
The tape is hedging a rally it doesn't trust: index put notional is large and ATM (SPY 755, QQQ 725), and MSFT bears re-engaged exactly at the +3.7% high. The strongest single-direction signals are the MSFT put stack and the SPY/QQQ put walls; the AMGN print is size but protective, not directional. Expect the pop to be sold.
Names to Watch at the Open
- MSFT — short/bearish bias; key level $515–520, where the put stack sits.
- SPY — downside hedge; watch 755 (10/30 put wall) and 725.
- QQQ — downside hedge; watch 725 and 685 (10/30).
- AAPL — bearish; 338 strike put is the pivot against spot $341.
- AMGN — watch $460 (10/16 put) vs spot $414; single large position.
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Technology | $10.0M | 412× | 5 | $7.9M | 510–520 | 2026-10-16 | 61 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $8.5M | 20× | 3 | $7.4M | 337.5–342.5 | 2026-10-16 | 55 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $13.4M | 2022× | 6 | $6.0M | 279–284 | 2026-11-20 | 53 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| SPY | Index ETF | $87.3M | 180× | 15 | $49.1M | 755–770 | 2026-10-30 | 47 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $92.9M | 395× | 9 | $44.4M | 711–725 | 2026-10-30 | 44 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $13.4M | 13× | 3 | $8.0M | 370–375 | 2026-10-16 | 44 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| META | Communication Services | $30.3M | 21× | 4 | $15.3M | 750–765 | 2026-10-09 | 40 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| AMGN | Health Care | $120.5M | 6× | 1 | $120.5M | 460 | 2026-10-16 | 33 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| ORCL | Technology | $2.1M | 32× | 3 | $1.2M | 138–140 | 2026-10-16 | 32 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| COST | Consumer Staples | $2.6M | 45× | 4 | $0.9M | 910–925 | 2026-10-16 | 31 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $28.5M | 35× | 1 | $21.4M | 700 | 2026-12-18 | 30 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| INTC | Technology | $2.5M | 46× | 3 | $1.1M | 123–125 | 2026-10-30 | 29 | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| LMT | Industrials | $1.3M | 63× | 2 | $1.0M | 540–545 | 2026-10-30 | 29 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| LLY | Health Care | $2.6M | 43× | 3 | $0.9M | 1175–1195 | 2026-10-23 | 28 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| CRM | Technology | $0.1M | 2× | 2 | $0.1M | 235–237.5 | 2026-10-16 | 27 | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Index ETF | $6.6M | 2529× | 6 | $3.5M | 283–288 | 2026-11-20 | 65 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $8.4M | 48× | 6 | $4.2M | 750–765 | 2026-11-06 | 51 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $43.5M | 195× | 3 | $24.7M | 370–375 | 2026-10-30 | 48 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $6.1M | 32× | 2 | $4.8M | 300–305 | 2026-10-09 | 47 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $36.3M | 25× | 15 | $21.6M | 760–775 | 2026-10-09 | 47 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| INTC | Technology | $2.0M | 102× | 3 | $1.2M | 123–125 | 2026-11-06 | 46 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $17.3M | 74× | 3 | $9.8M | 530–540 | 2026-10-09 | 44 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| BLK | Financials | $3.5M | 36× | 2 | $3.5M | 1080–1100 | 2026-10-16 | 42 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $26.2M | 41× | 13 | $12.4M | 741–755 | 2026-10-05 | 42 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| WMT | Consumer Staples | $0.5M | 15× | 3 | $0.5M | 106–108 | 2026-10-09 | 42 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $6.7M | 19× | 6 | $3.2M | 627.5–640 | 2026-10-30 | 39 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| QCOM | Technology | $5.8M | 40× | 2 | $3.4M | 202.5–205 | 2026-10-16 | 38 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| COST | Consumer Staples | $4.2M | 237× | 5 | $1.5M | 915–930 | 2026-10-16 | 36 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| PYPL | Financials | $1.7M | 17× | 2 | $1.6M | 56–57 | 2026-10-16 | 32 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| CVS | Health Care | $1.3M | 841× | 2 | $0.4M | 90–91 | 2026-10-30 | 31 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 13 | 0.73 | 0.60 | $124.7M | 27678 | 🟡 Caution |
| Technology | 15 | 0.53 | 0.53 | $57.1M | 52401 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.78 | 0.71 | $32.6M | 15431 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.49 | 0.98 | $16.7M | 19107 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 0.69 | 1.08 | $5.5M | 12752 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 0.60 | 0.74 | $3.9M | 3722 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.71 | 1.20 | $3.0M | 971 | 🟡 Caution |
| Materials | 1 | 0.32 | 2.01 | $0.6M | 4079 | ⚪ Neutral |
| Energy | 3 | 0.75 | 0.60 | $0.3M | 1276 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.55 | 1.34 | $0.1M | 644 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2.00 | 1.44 | $87.3M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 1.32 | 1.25 | $92.9M | 🔴 Defensive |
| IWM | 2.29 | 2.47 | $13.4M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 460 | 2026-10-16 | 26060 | 4125 | 6.3× | $120.5M | -10.9% |
| AMD | 700 | 2026-12-18 | 1992 | 1202 | 1.7× | $21.4M | -11.0% |
| META | 750 | 2026-10-09 | 3615 | 472 | 7.7× | $7.9M | 0.2% |
| AAPL | 337.5 | 2026-10-16 | 13657 | 810 | 16.9× | $6.7M | 1.0% |
| META | 770 | 2026-11-20 | 1075 | 462 | 2.3× | $6.5M | -2.5% |
| META | 765 | 2026-11-20 | 668 | 184 | 3.6× | $3.8M | -1.8% |
| META | 685 | 2026-11-20 | 1401 | 334 | 4.2× | $3.0M | 8.8% |
| TSLA | 372.5 | 2026-10-16 | 1910 | 396 | 4.8× | $2.6M | -0.1% |
| MSFT | 520 | 2026-10-16 | 1799 | 1031 | 1.7× | $2.5M | -0.7% |
| META | 730 | 2026-10-09 | 1819 | 319 | 5.7× | $2.4M | 2.8% |
| MSFT | 515 | 2026-10-16 | 1736 | 350 | 5.0× | $2.0M | 0.2% |
| AMD | 625 | 2026-10-09 | 862 | 119 | 7.2× | $1.8M | 0.9% |
| META | 755 | 2026-10-16 | 625 | 328 | 1.9× | $1.8M | -0.5% |
| META | 745 | 2026-10-16 | 749 | 422 | 1.8× | $1.8M | 0.8% |
| V | 365 | 2026-12-18 | 1193 | 352 | 3.4× | $1.6M | 0.6% |
Total unusual put notional: $244.5M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.