Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-09-22
The Story
Indexes ground higher again — QQQ closed at a 46-day high of $746.63 (+0.80%) and IWM added 0.55%, while SPY was flat, extending a two-day risk-on streak even as $362.7M in unusual puts came in. The move was a rotation, not a broad bid: financials sold off (SCHW -6.10%, WFC -3.92%, JPM -3.44%) while cyclicals and staples caught the bids (HD +2.75%, LOW +2.67%, DE +2.67%, WMT +2.48%). Yesterday's top bearish bets mostly failed — QQQ, IWM, TSLA, INTC and AMD all rose against their put flow — while the call side scored (IWM, AVGO, TSLA, AMD, QCOM all up). The day's single biggest print is a $129.9M AMGN 460 put, 12% in the money, placed while the stock jumped 4.25% to $410.37. Net read: put buying is heavy but not working yet — the tape keeps climbing the wall of worry.
Bearish Bets to Watch
IWM (score 57) — $28.1M puts at 30x V/OI, a 4-strike cluster at 272/273/274 (Oct 16), about 5% below spot $287.12. Down 3.05% over 45 days but sitting near the top of its 283.93–304.90 range. No TRO confirmation; yesterday's bullish IWM call was right (+0.55%), so the puts are fading a two-day bounce.
INTC (score 57) — $5.6M puts at 716x V/OI, strikes 120/118/125 against spot $123.86. The stock is up 17.87% over 45 days and +1.83% today, so this is a fresh reversal bet at the top. Same day carries $11.3M in calls (bullish score 57) — the tape is two-sided and unresolved.
TSLA (score 56) — $25.0M puts at 486x, clustered 370–378 against spot $378.85. Yesterday's call bet was right (+0.98%), and today's flow is split ($44.3M calls vs $25.0M puts), so there is no clear edge. The 378 put with 485.6x V/OI is the highest-conviction put print.
QQQ (score 54) — $167.9M puts at 1548x across 15 strikes, the deepest put book of the day. Led by the 730 strike ($16.79M, 310.6x), 2.2% below the new 46-day high. Yesterday's $174.0M QQQ put bet was wrong (+0.80%) — the book is doubling down into strength.
SPY (score 53) — $64.6M puts at 470x, but the same index shows $65.8M calls at bullish score 66 with TRO confirmed. The put wall sits at 765/785; spot $773.18 barely moved (-0.00%) after yesterday's +1.39%. Read as hedging against a call-heavy index, not a directional short.
Bullish Bets to Watch
SPY (score 66, TRO ✅) — $65.8M calls at 154x, 6 strikes, including a $31.0M 670 Sep-30 call 13% in the money. TRO-confirmed and the highest score on the board; the offsetting $64.6M in puts is the hedge leg. Direction still up.
INTC (score 57) — $11.3M calls at 310x on a stock that also carries $5.6M of puts. Momentum favors the calls: +1.83% today, +17.87% over 45 days. The 125 call (24.6x) sits right at the money.
META (score 52, TRO ✅) — $40.1M calls at 249x, stacked on the 750 strike (Sep-30 through Oct-9), 1.8% above spot $736.60. Stock gave back only 0.63% after yesterday's +11.18% run, and the bearish book halved to $69.0M from $136.2M. TRO confirms the call flow.
JPM (score 51) — $2.4M calls at 100x, anchored by the 340 at-the-money call (69x) after a -3.44% drop to $340.00. A dip-buy into the financials selloff; no TRO, small size.
AMD (score 42, TRO ✅) — $57.9M calls at 809x, the largest single-stock call notional of the day. Spot $623.97, +1.37% today and +14.91% over 45 days; the 630 Oct-9 call is right at the level. TRO confirmed on top of yesterday's correct call bet.
The Oracle Read
The tape keeps climbing a wall of worry: heavy index puts are not breaking the uptrend, and TRO confirms the call side on SPY, META, AMD, QQQ and MSFT. Strongest setups are the TRO-flagged longs (SPY, AMD, META) and the QQQ 730-put / 760-call tension that resolves with a break of either level. The lone exception to the bullish drift is AMGN's $129.9M in-the-money 460 put — a hedge-sized print against a 4.25% pop that is the single trade to watch.
Names to Watch at the Open
- AMGN — watch $410.37 vs the $129.9M 460 put; a hedge that big caps upside, but any reversal validates it.
- QQQ — 730 put wall ($16.79M) below, 760 call ($42.0M) above spot $746.63; the two levels bracket the open.
- INTC — $123.86 with calls at 125 and puts at 120/118; a break of either side picks the tape's direction.
- TSLA — $378.85 pinned between 375/378 puts and 380/385 calls; the 378 put carries 485.6x V/OI.
- JPM — $340.00 after -3.44%; the 340 ATM call is a bounce bet, confirm with a hold above 340.
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Index ETF | $28.1M | 30× | 4 | $26.1M | 270–274 | 2026-10-16 | 57 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| INTC | Technology | $5.6M | 716× | 3 | $2.2M | 118–120 | 2026-10-23 | 57 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $25.0M | 486× | 4 | $18.0M | 372.5–380 | 2026-10-02 | 56 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $167.9M | 1548× | 15 | $84.8M | 730–744 | 2026-10-02 | 54 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $64.6M | 470× | 15 | $43.4M | 765–780 | 2026-11-20 | 53 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $69.0M | 1540× | 4 | $33.5M | 740–750 | 2026-12-18 | 52 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| NVDA | Technology | $4.6M | 25× | 2 | $2.8M | 225–227.5 | 2026-10-30 | 51 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $15.0M | 402× | 3 | $9.4M | 335–340 | 2026-10-16 | 50 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GS | Financials | $6.0M | 12× | 3 | $4.0M | 910–925 | 2026-12-18 | 47 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| AMD | Technology | $48.2M | 310× | 3 | $15.0M | 590–600 | 2026-12-18 | 45 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $4.0M | 163× | 3 | $2.1M | 350–355 | 2026-10-30 | 43 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $4.1M | 63× | 2 | $1.1M | 507.5–510 | 2026-10-02 | 36 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AXP | Financials | $0.4M | 40× | 3 | $0.3M | 295–300 | 2026-10-02 | 36 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $2.4M | 19× | 3 | $1.6M | 255–260 | 2026-10-30 | 36 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AVGO | Technology | $3.0M | 20× | 3 | $1.5M | 357.5–362.5 | 2026-10-30 | 34 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | Index ETF | $65.8M | 154× | 6 | $37.1M | 661–675 | 2026-09-30 | 66 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| INTC | Technology | $11.3M | 310× | 3 | $4.3M | 123–125 | 2026-10-09 | 57 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $40.1M | 249× | 5 | $20.3M | 742.5–755 | 2026-09-30 | 52 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| JPM | Financials | $2.4M | 100× | 3 | $1.2M | 340–345 | 2026-10-02 | 51 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $44.3M | 13× | 4 | $32.9M | 377.5–385 | 2026-10-02 | 50 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $10.4M | 7141× | 6 | $5.1M | 287–292.5 | 2026-10-02 | 49 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AVGO | Technology | $11.0M | 21× | 3 | $6.2M | 375–380 | 2026-10-02 | 44 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $57.9M | 809× | 5 | $17.8M | 620–630 | 2026-10-09 | 42 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $142.8M | 54× | 13 | $76.1M | 746–760 | 2026-10-16 | 42 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $9.5M | 9× | 3 | $4.8M | 260–265 | 2026-10-23 | 40 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| AAPL | Technology | $5.3M | 24× | 3 | $2.0M | 340–345 | 2026-10-02 | 39 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| CVX | Energy | $1.4M | 72× | 2 | $0.8M | 202.5–205 | 2026-10-02 | 38 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| TMUS | Communication Services | $1.0M | 874× | 2 | $0.7M | 162.5–165 | 2026-10-02 | 37 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $9.7M | 47× | 4 | $3.9M | 495–502.5 | 2026-10-02 | 37 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| QCOM | Technology | $5.7M | 29× | 2 | $2.0M | 197.5–200 | 2026-10-02 | 35 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 13 | 0.60 | 0.63 | $135.7M | 30256 | 🟡 Caution |
| Technology | 15 | 0.51 | 0.48 | $87.2M | 98317 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.52 | 0.64 | $81.1M | 45914 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.58 | 0.88 | $30.7M | 41424 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 1.11 | 1.16 | $16.5M | 79075 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.64 | 1.17 | $6.0M | 10434 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 0.45 | 0.71 | $3.9M | 4938 | 🟡 Caution |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.62 | 1.54 | $0.8M | 4817 | ⚪ Neutral |
| Energy | 3 | 0.78 | 0.61 | $0.8M | 7047 | ⚪ Neutral |
| Materials | 1 | 0.45 | 3.19 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 1.31 | 1.42 | $64.6M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 1.26 | 1.32 | $167.9M | 🔴 Defensive |
| IWM | 1.64 | 2.19 | $28.1M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | 460 | 2026-10-16 | 26060 | 4125 | 6.3× | $129.9M | -12.1% |
| AMD | 700 | 2026-12-18 | 832 | 46 | 18.1× | $9.7M | -12.2% |
| META | 750 | 2026-12-18 | 1342 | 878 | 1.5× | $9.1M | -1.8% |
| AMD | 600 | 2026-10-02 | 6252 | 71 | 88.1× | $7.4M | 3.8% |
| META | 700 | 2026-12-18 | 1357 | 896 | 1.5× | $5.8M | 5.0% |
| TSLA | 375 | 2026-10-02 | 6367 | 487 | 13.1× | $5.4M | 1.0% |
| AAPL | 335 | 2026-10-16 | 8048 | 3864 | 2.1× | $4.4M | 1.4% |
| META | 740 | 2026-10-16 | 1208 | 15 | 80.5× | $4.1M | -0.5% |
| META | 730 | 2026-12-18 | 712 | 101 | 7.0× | $4.0M | 0.9% |
| META | 740 | 2026-10-02 | 1540 | 1 | 1540.0× | $3.8M | -0.5% |
| META | 750 | 2026-10-16 | 924 | 150 | 6.2× | $3.6M | -1.8% |
| AMD | 600 | 2026-10-16 | 1394 | 206 | 6.8× | $3.1M | 3.8% |
| AMD | 550 | 2026-11-20 | 1229 | 491 | 2.5× | $3.1M | 11.9% |
| GS | 925 | 2026-12-18 | 622 | 285 | 2.2× | $2.8M | 2.6% |
| AMD | 620 | 2026-12-18 | 409 | 59 | 6.9× | $2.7M | 0.6% |
Total unusual put notional: $362.7M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.