Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-08-13
The Story
The market rallied broadly — SPY +0.69%, QQQ +1.33%, IWM +0.21% — and yesterday's bearish conviction bets were almost entirely wrong (only CSCO and JPM paid off). Despite the rally, unusual put activity surged to $193.2M across 66 names, with AAPL alone drawing $49.8M in bearish flow after weeks of quiet. Index ETF put buying doubled: SPY $73M (defensive), QQQ $60.6M, IWM $30.2M — all while spot prices hit multi-day highs. The tape is flashing a clear divergence: prices up, hedges on.
Bearish Bets to Watch
INTC (score 67) — $13.1M in unusual puts, up from $1.9M yesterday, with a 536x V/OI print on the 105 strike expiring 8/24. The stock rallied +3.71% today to $104.63, completing a 28% bounce off the July 29 low of $81.92. No TRO confirmation; the bet is that this recovery is a dead cat.
IWM (score 65) — $30.2M in bearish flow, the 17th consecutive day of unusual put activity. Heavy positioning at 288/289 strikes (Sept 18) with 32-38x V/OI, totaling $15.1M in notional — these are deep in-the-money puts suggesting conviction, not hedging. IWM has grinded from 288 to 303 over two weeks; the put buyers are betting the small-cap rally stalls here.
AAPL (score 49) — $49.8M in unusual puts after averaging under $2M/day for the prior two weeks. Two massive prints: $31.4M at the 335 strike (8/21, 6.7x V/OI, -9.9% OTM) and $8.8M at 345 (18.1x V/OI, -13.1% OTM). Stock closed +0.91% at $304.95 but remains -6.9% over the 18-day window. This is a sudden, large bearish entry after a period of dormancy.
QQQ (score 57) — $60.6M in bearish flow across 113 contracts, up from $26.7M yesterday. The 747 strike (Sept 30) printed at 200x V/OI for $1.65M, and the 718 strike (Sept 4) at 62.9x V/OI for $3.62M. QQQ hit $732.46, its highest close in the 18-day window. The put buying is concentrated at and above current levels — a top-of-range bet.
GOOGL (score 47) — $29.7M in bearish flow, up from $4.5M yesterday, with TRO confirmation. Two dominant prints: $19.1M at 390 strike (8/21, -12.6% OTM) and $9.9M at 395 strike (9.1x V/OI, -14% OTM). Stock +1.18% today but the 17-day trajectory shows a failed rally from $380 back to $346. The bet is continuation lower.
Bullish Bets to Watch
IWM (score 60) — $9.1M in bullish flow with TRO confirmation, the mirror image of the bearish bet. Four-strike cluster suggests genuine bullish conviction alongside the hedging. The bull-bear split in IWM is the widest on the tape — both sides are loading up.
META (score 56) — $14.3M in bullish calls, up from $5.6M yesterday. Dominated by the 590 strike (8/21) at $8.4M notional, plus a 90.5x V/OI print on the 582 strike. Stock rebounded +2.66% to $594.18 after yesterday's -3.39% drop. The 17-day trajectory shows a slow grind up from the July 30 low of $538.67.
LLY (score 56) — $18.8M in bullish flow with TRO confirmation, the largest single-stock bull notional today. Deep ITM calls at 1040 strike ($11.3M, -14% OTM) and 1050 ($3.6M, -13.2% OTM) expiring 8/21. Stock dipped -0.89% to $1209.09 but the 18-day trend is +3.94%. The bet is a quick bounce back above $1210.
IBM (score 52) — $24.8M in bullish calls, the fourth consecutive day of $20M+ flow. Deep ITM strikes at 202-212 (8/21) with 1200x V/OI on the 208 and 202 strikes — these are position rolls or accumulation, not speculative bets. Stock +0.41% to $236.96, up +12% over 17 days. The flow pattern suggests institutional accumulation.
CSCO (score 53) — $7.5M in bullish calls despite the stock dropping -4.67% today to $113.48, its worst single-day decline in the 17-day window. Buyers are stepping into the dip with 70x V/OI on the 112 strike (8/28) and 30.2x on the 112 (9/4). Yesterday's bearish bet on CSCO was the best-performing conviction put — today the bulls are fading that move.
The Oracle Read
The tape is defensive under the surface: $193.2M in unusual puts, all three index ETFs flashing caution or defensive signals, and AAPL's sudden $49.8M bearish entry after two weeks of silence. The strongest conviction setups are INTC (bearish, fading a +28% bounce) and IWM (bearish, fading a grind to range highs). On the bull side, IBM's persistent deep-ITM call flow is the cleanest signal — four straight days above $20M with 1200x V/OI prints suggests a buyer who knows something.
Names to Watch at the Open
- INTC — bearish fade; $13.1M puts at 536x V/OI after +3.71% rally; key level $105
- AAPL — bearish entry; $49.8M puts after dormancy; 335 strike (-9.9% OTM) is the line
- IWM — two-sided but bearish dominates; $30.2M puts vs $9.1M calls; 288-289 strikes are the battleground
- IBM — bullish continuation; $24.8M deep ITM calls at 1200x V/OI for fourth day; 202-212 strikes
- CSCO — bullish dip-buy; $7.5M calls after -4.67% drop; 112 strike is the support
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Technology | $13.1M | 536× | 3 | $7.2M | 104–106 | 2026-09-04 | 67 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $30.2M | 46× | 3 | $17.9M | 288–291 | 2026-09-18 | 65 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AVGO | Technology | $5.6M | 174× | 4 | $4.3M | 417.5–425 | 2026-09-11 | 59 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $60.6M | 200× | 16 | $37.7M | 724–738 | 2026-08-21 | 57 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $10.8M | 34× | 2 | $5.8M | 490–495 | 2026-09-11 | 56 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $73.0M | 345× | 13 | $46.0M | 765–780 | 2026-09-18 | 51 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $49.8M | 49× | 3 | $35.4M | 332.5–337.5 | 2026-08-21 | 49 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $29.7M | 120× | 2 | $29.1M | 390–395 | 2026-08-21 | 47 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| META | Communication Services | $3.5M | 198× | 5 | $1.9M | 645–655 | 2026-08-21 | 45 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| GOOG | Communication Services | $9.5M | 43× | 3 | $5.4M | 390–395 | 2026-10-16 | 45 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $9.5M | 52× | 3 | $4.5M | 332.5–337.5 | 2026-08-21 | 45 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $5.4M | 51× | 4 | $2.7M | 497.5–505 | 2026-08-24 | 44 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| ORCL | Technology | $4.6M | 393× | 2 | $1.2M | 157.5–160 | 2026-09-04 | 43 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| CHTR | Communication Services | $1.1M | 121× | 3 | $0.7M | 146–148 | 2026-08-21 | 39 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| CVS | Health Care | $0.7M | 253× | 2 | $0.7M | 106–107 | 2026-08-21 | 37 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Index ETF | $9.1M | 35× | 4 | $8.8M | 305–311 | 2026-09-18 | 60 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| META | Communication Services | $14.3M | 90× | 5 | $11.9M | 587.5–597.5 | 2026-08-21 | 56 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| LLY | Health Care | $18.8M | 12× | 3 | $16.7M | 1030–1050 | 2026-08-21 | 56 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| CSCO | Technology | $7.5M | 142× | 3 | $5.3M | 113–115 | 2026-10-16 | 53 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| IBM | Technology | $24.8M | 1200× | 2 | $12.9M | 205–207.5 | 2026-08-21 | 52 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $12.9M | 64× | 3 | $9.0M | 300–305 | 2026-09-11 | 50 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| BAC | Financials | $1.8M | 492× | 2 | $0.9M | 55–56 | 2026-09-11 | 49 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $14.4M | 278× | 3 | $5.1M | 300–305 | 2026-09-11 | 47 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| SBUX | Consumer Discretionary | $9.1M | 13× | 3 | $6.2M | 100–102 | 2026-08-21 | 47 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $52.0M | 86× | 12 | $26.3M | 731–745 | 2026-09-11 | 44 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| FDX | Industrials | $6.4M | 77× | 2 | $5.6M | 340–342.5 | 2026-09-18 | 44 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| INTC | Technology | $8.5M | 239× | 3 | $4.5M | 104–106 | 2026-08-28 | 43 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| V | Financials | $3.8M | 6× | 2 | $3.8M | 320–325 | 2026-08-21 | 42 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| ADBE | Technology | $1.6M | 37× | 3 | $1.1M | 267.5–272.5 | 2026-08-28 | 40 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $5.2M | 174× | 3 | $2.3M | 277.5–282.5 | 2026-08-28 | 39 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 15 | 0.45 | 0.45 | $108.1M | 90401 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.35 | 0.74 | $45.2M | 22463 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.40 | 0.75 | $13.4M | 22196 | 🟡 Caution |
| Health Care | 13 | 0.48 | 0.54 | $11.0M | 8344 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 0.52 | 0.53 | $6.6M | 12775 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.29 | 0.59 | $5.2M | 2266 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 0.74 | 0.83 | $3.4M | 4671 | 🟡 Caution |
| Energy | 3 | 0.35 | 0.43 | $0.1M | 937 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Materials | 1 | 3.95 | 1.16 | $0.1M | 1489 | 🟡 Caution |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.45 | 0.72 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 1.75 | 1.35 | $73.0M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 0.84 | 0.83 | $60.6M | 🟡 Caution |
| IWM | 2.70 | 2.43 | $30.2M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 335 | 2026-08-21 | 10304 | 1529 | 6.7× | $31.4M | -9.9% |
| GOOGL | 390 | 2026-08-21 | 4414 | 2855 | 1.5× | $19.1M | -12.6% |
| GOOGL | 395 | 2026-08-21 | 2034 | 223 | 9.1× | $9.9M | -14.0% |
| AAPL | 345 | 2026-08-21 | 2185 | 121 | 18.1× | $8.8M | -13.1% |
| AMD | 490 | 2026-09-11 | 1667 | 62 | 26.9× | $5.4M | -1.5% |
| INTC | 106 | 2026-09-04 | 6127 | 29 | 211.3× | $4.8M | -1.3% |
| GOOG | 345 | 2026-10-16 | 2249 | 838 | 2.7× | $3.7M | -0.3% |
| AAPL | 332.5 | 2026-08-21 | 1296 | 424 | 3.1× | $3.6M | -9.0% |
| UNH | 440 | 2026-08-21 | 702 | 457 | 1.5× | $2.8M | -10.2% |
| INTC | 110 | 2026-09-04 | 2754 | 64 | 43.0× | $2.8M | -5.1% |
| GOOG | 390 | 2026-08-21 | 570 | 318 | 1.8× | $2.6M | -13.4% |
| AMD | 475 | 2026-08-28 | 1084 | 263 | 4.1× | $1.9M | 1.7% |
| AVGO | 420 | 2026-09-11 | 769 | 453 | 1.7× | $1.9M | -0.5% |
| GOOG | 395 | 2026-08-21 | 340 | 81 | 4.2× | $1.8M | -14.8% |
| ACN | 200 | 2026-08-21 | 798 | 2 | 399.0× | $1.7M | -12.0% |
Total unusual put notional: $193.2M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.