Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-08-10
The Story
The market was broadly red — 44 of 78 tracked names fell, with semis leading the decline (AMD -2.61%, NVDA -2.13%, INTC -4.02%). SPY closed flat at 772.82 (-0.04%) but the tape is defensive: SPY PCR_v hit 2.33, IWM 4.00, and all seven sectors flagged caution. Yesterday's bearish bets mostly paid off — AVGO, AMD, NVDA, and IWM all fell as predicted — while ADBE and MSFT were the notable misses, both rising against put positioning. Today's flow shows the heaviest conviction in MSFT calls ($66.3M, score 93, TRO confirmed) and AMD two-way action ($25.6M puts + $12.1M calls at 1539x V/OI on both sides).
Bearish Bets to Watch
AVGO (score 67) — $6.7M in unusual puts across 10 contracts, led by the 425 Sep strikes at 36x and 125x V/OI. Yesterday's bearish bet was right (-1.22%), breaking a 7-day rally that took the stock from 367 to 428. No TRO confirmation. The 14-day run is +9.4% but today's reversal and persistent put flow suggest the top may be in.
AMD (score 46) — $25.6M in unusual puts, anchored by the 430 Sep strike at 1539x V/OI ($3.0M) and the 420 Sep at 20x ($3.3M). Yesterday's bearish bet was right (-2.61%). Stock is down 13.5% over 14 days from 543 to 470. The put flow has been building for two weeks — $34.8M on Aug 5, $16.2M on Aug 6, now $25.6M. This is the most sustained bearish campaign on the tape.
SPY (score 51) — $80.7M in unusual puts, PCR_v 2.33. The 775 Sep 18 put ($29.7M at 4.4x V/OI) is the anchor position, sitting just 0.3% OTM. The 781 Sep 4 strike at 51x V/OI ($3.3M) and 782 at 77x ($1.4M) reinforce the downside bet. Yesterday was flat. This is a persistent hedge, not a panic — the notional has been elevated for two weeks straight.
QQQ (score 52) — $17.9M in unusual puts across 13 strikes. The 785 Oct put ($3.5M, 8.9% OTM) and 770 Oct put ($3.0M at 60x V/OI) are the conviction bets. Yesterday was flat. QQQ has been rangebound between 661 and 723 for 15 days, and the put flow is betting on a break lower.
ADBE (score 53) — $2.7M in unusual puts, led by the 280 Oct put at 29x V/OI ($1.87M). Yesterday's bearish bet was wrong (+2.96%). Stock is up 20.4% in 14 days from 227 to 273. The put flow is fading from last week's $5.1M peak, and the stock keeps climbing — this bet is underwater.
Bullish Bets to Watch
MSFT (score 93) — $66.3M in unusual calls, TRO confirmed. The 550 Oct 16 call ($57.9M at 25.5x V/OI, 8.7% OTM) is the single largest conviction bet on the tape. Yesterday's bullish bet was right (+1.26%). Stock is up 26.9% in 15 days from 399 to 506. The PCR is 0.18 — calls dominate 5:1. This is the cleanest bull setup: TRO confirmed, momentum intact, and the put side is only $6M (score 52).
ORCL (score 56) — $2.4M in unusual calls, led by the 138 Sep 11 call at 31x V/OI ($0.9M) and the 152 Sep 11 at 140x ($0.18M). Yesterday's bullish bet was right (+2.78%). Stock is up 19% in 14 days from 127 to 151. The call flow is concentrated in near-the-money Sep strikes — a bet on continued momentum through earnings season.
AMZN (score 45) — $10.2M in unusual calls, TRO confirmed. The 275 Aug 28 call ($9.0M at 7.1x V/OI) is the anchor. Yesterday's bullish bet was right (+1.32%). Stock is up 11.9% in 15 days from 249 to 278. Call flow dipped last week but rebounded today to $10.2M from $1.3M.
AAPL (score 50) — $5.4M in unusual calls, led by the 308 Aug 21 call ($2.0M at 2.1x V/OI). Stock is down 5.9% over 15 days and fell 1.63% today. The call flow is a contrarian bet — buying the dip with near-the-money Aug calls. The 285 Sep 25 call at 42x V/OI ($0.23M) adds a longer-dated recovery bet.
V (score 40) — $11.3M in unusual calls, TRO confirmed. The 315 Aug 21 call ($5.3M at 4.1x V/OI, 12.8% OTM) is the key. Yesterday's bullish bet was right (+0.32%). The TRO confirmation and $11.3M notional make this a credible bull setup despite the modest spot move.
The Oracle Read
The tape is defensive at the index level (SPY PCR_v 2.33, IWM 4.00) but selectively bullish in single names. MSFT is the highest-conviction bet on the board — $57.9M on one call strike, TRO confirmed, and the stock keeps rising. AMD is the wildcard: $25.6M in puts and $12.1M in calls at extreme V/OI ratios suggest a big move is coming, but the direction is contested. The index hedges (SPY, QQQ puts) are persistent but not accelerating — they look like portfolio insurance, not a crash bet.
Names to Watch at the Open
- MSFT ↑ — $57.9M call on 550 Oct, score 93, TRO confirmed, PCR 0.18
- AMD ↔ — $25.6M puts + $12.1M calls, 1539x V/OI both sides, direction unresolved
- AVGO ↓ — $6.7M puts at 125x V/OI, yesterday's bet was right, rally may be stalling
- ORCL ↑ — score 56, +2.78% today, 140x V/OI calls, momentum intact
- SPY ↓ — $80.7M puts, PCR_v 2.33, 775 Sep anchor at 0.3% OTM
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | Technology | $6.7M | 125× | 2 | $5.1M | 420–425 | 2026-09-04 | 67 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| ADBE | Technology | $2.7M | 29× | 2 | $2.0M | 275–280 | 2026-10-16 | 53 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $17.9M | 231× | 13 | $6.7M | 718–732 | 2026-10-30 | 52 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $6.0M | 83× | 4 | $4.2M | 500–510 | 2026-08-21 | 52 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $80.7M | 1068× | 13 | $55.8M | 763–778 | 2026-09-18 | 51 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $25.6M | 1539× | 2 | $9.7M | 455–460 | 2026-08-19 | 46 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $3.0M | 106× | 3 | $1.5M | 612.5–620 | 2026-08-21 | 41 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| IWM | Index ETF | $3.1M | 12× | 3 | $2.1M | 291–296 | 2026-08-21 | 39 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| NVDA | Technology | $12.3M | 194× | 2 | $2.8M | 210–212.5 | 2026-08-21 | 35 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GS | Financials | $1.8M | 24× | 3 | $0.8M | 1165–1180 | 2026-09-25 | 33 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| CVS | Health Care | $0.6M | 2× | 2 | $0.6M | 106–107 | 2026-08-21 | 29 | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| ACN | Technology | $3.5M | 399× | 1 | $1.8M | 200 | 2026-08-21 | 29 | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | |
| COST | Consumer Staples | $1.9M | 3× | 4 | $0.9M | 1045–1060 | 2026-08-21 | 27 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| MA | Financials | $1.0M | 20× | 2 | $0.7M | 615–620 | 2026-08-28 | 25 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $2.0M | 451× | 1 | $1.0M | 340 | 2026-09-25 | 25 | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Technology | $66.3M | 135× | 3 | $61.2M | 540–550 | 2026-10-16 | 93 🚀 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| ORCL | Technology | $2.4M | 140× | 3 | $1.1M | 138–140 | 2026-09-11 | 56 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| AMD | Technology | $12.1M | 1622× | 2 | $3.9M | 510–515 | 2026-09-25 | 52 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $5.4M | 230× | 3 | $3.2M | 305–310 | 2026-08-21 | 50 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $22.5M | 110× | 12 | $14.8M | 712–725 | 2026-09-11 | 50 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $10.2M | 72× | 2 | $9.1M | 275–277.5 | 2026-08-28 | 45 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| SPY | Index ETF | $69.0M | 456× | 9 | $26.5M | 688–701 | 2026-10-30 | 44 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| GOOG | Communication Services | $5.4M | 14× | 3 | $3.1M | 307.5–312.5 | 2026-08-21 | 43 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| BKNG | Consumer Discretionary | $1.1M | 17× | 3 | $1.0M | 218.2–219.6 | 2026-09-18 | 41 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ✅ TRO |
| V | Financials | $11.3M | 94× | 2 | $8.3M | 315–320 | 2026-08-21 | 40 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| WFC | Financials | $11.9M | 257× | 1 | $7.0M | 77.5 | 2026-08-21 | 40 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $7.8M | 26× | 3 | $3.2M | 327.5–332.5 | 2026-08-28 | 40 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| NVDA | Technology | $24.1M | 18× | 2 | $15.5M | 215–217.5 | 2026-08-28 | 37 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| INTC | Technology | $5.8M | 407× | 1 | $3.3M | 110 | 2026-09-25 | 37 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| XOM | Energy | $0.7M | 93× | 2 | $0.7M | 157.5–160 | 2026-09-11 | 35 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 15 | 0.39 | 0.49 | $59.7M | 66161 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.55 | 0.73 | $7.2M | 20965 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 11 | 0.85 | 0.59 | $4.6M | 3512 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 14 | 0.58 | 0.55 | $4.4M | 3139 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 1.01 | 0.88 | $3.1M | 13072 | 🟡 Caution |
| Health Care | 13 | 0.46 | 0.51 | $2.2M | 1128 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.47 | 0.63 | $2.0M | 11256 | 🟡 Caution |
| Energy | 3 | 0.36 | 0.37 | $0.3M | 554 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Materials | 1 | 0.66 | 0.83 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.46 | 0.85 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2.33 | 1.34 | $80.7M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 0.86 | 0.91 | $17.9M | 🟡 Caution |
| IWM | 4.00 | 2.45 | $3.1M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 455 | 2026-08-19 | 7495 | 3527 | 2.1× | $7.8M | 3.1% |
| AMD | 420 | 2026-08-28 | 7075 | 2871 | 2.5× | $4.8M | 10.6% |
| AMD | 420 | 2026-09-25 | 2084 | 103 | 20.2× | $3.3M | 10.6% |
| AMD | 430 | 2026-09-25 | 1539 | 1 | 1539.0× | $3.0M | 8.5% |
| NVDA | 212.5 | 2026-08-21 | 7949 | 961 | 8.3× | $2.5M | 3.0% |
| AMD | 440 | 2026-09-25 | 1060 | 1 | 1060.0× | $2.5M | 6.3% |
| ADBE | 280 | 2026-10-16 | 699 | 24 | 29.1× | $1.9M | -2.6% |
| ACN | 200 | 2026-08-21 | 798 | 2 | 399.0× | $1.8M | -12.2% |
| AVGO | 425 | 2026-09-04 | 724 | 20 | 36.2× | $1.8M | -0.6% |
| ACN | 205 | 2026-08-21 | 646 | 9 | 71.8× | $1.7M | -15.0% |
| GOOGL | 340 | 2026-09-25 | 1352 | 3 | 450.7× | $1.0M | 4.8% |
| WMT | 111 | 2026-08-28 | 3462 | 258 | 13.4× | $1.0M | 1.5% |
| GOOG | 315 | 2026-08-28 | 16009 | 754 | 21.2× | $0.8M | 11.5% |
| META | 612.5 | 2026-08-21 | 327 | 84 | 3.9× | $0.8M | -3.1% |
| META | 575 | 2026-08-28 | 855 | 337 | 2.5× | $0.8M | 3.2% |
Total unusual put notional: $83.5M across 10 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.