Daily Tape Analysis — 2026-07-31
The Story
Mega-cap tech staged a sharp bounce (AMZN +6.35%, GOOG +6.66%, META +3.33%, MSFT +3.25%) while the broad tape remained defensive — SPY put buying hit $130.2M at 900x V/OI and IWM puts reached $27.9M at 610x V/OI. Yesterday's bearish bets mostly failed: MSFT puts ($38.4M) were wrong by 3.25%, AMZN puts ($57M) wrong by 6.35%, SPY puts ($116.7M) wrong by 0.57%. Only AAPL (-3.12%) and IWM (-0.64%) validated their bearish positioning. The tape is now deeply split — aggressive call buying on GOOG/AAPL/AMZN against persistent put accumulation on IWM/SPY/AMD, with IWM's 8.85 PCR and 73 conviction score the strongest directional signal on the board.
Bearish Bets to Watch
IWM (score 73) — $27.9M in unusual puts across 24 contracts, led by $13.2M at the 274 strike (142x V/OI, Aug 21). This is the third consecutive day of heavy put flow ($116.7M → $38.1M → $27.9M), with PCR surging to 8.85. The 8-day trajectory is down 1.8% from 296.14 to 290.80. No TRO confirmation.
AMD (score 56) — $8.6M in unusual puts, anchored by a single $4.2M print at the 465 strike (1023x V/OI, Sep 11). The stock has collapsed 12.33% in 8 days (542.99 → 476.03), including a 14.24% single-day crash on 7/29. Put flow accelerated from $3.4M yesterday to $8.6M today. No TRO confirmation.
AMZN (score 55) — $15.2M in unusual puts across 37 contracts, with TRO confirmation. Key prints: 260 put (87x V/OI, Aug 14), 265 put (165x V/OI, Aug 14), 240 put (134x V/OI, Sep 4). The stock bounced 6.35% today after a 9-day selloff from 248.54 to 226.70 — these puts are fading the rally. Yesterday's $57M bearish bet was wrong by 6.35%.
META (score 54) — $5.9M in unusual puts across 17 contracts, TRO confirmed. The stock is down 14% over 8 days (647.13 → 556.60) despite today's 3.33% bounce. Put flow has declined from $38.3M (7/30) to $5.9M, but the 550 strike cluster (Sep 4, $1.5M at 8x V/OI) and 545 strike (170x V/OI, Sep 11) suggest conviction the bounce won't hold.
SPY (score 50) — $130.2M in unusual puts across 93 contracts, 14-strike cluster. The headline print: $29.4M at the 635 strike (217x V/OI, Sep 30) — a deep 15% OTM tail hedge. Additional $20.7M at 707 (52x V/OI, Oct 30). PCR at 2.10, the highest in the dataset. Yesterday's $116.7M bearish bet was wrong by 0.57%, but the put flow is not backing off.
Bullish Bets to Watch
GOOG (score 59) — $11.4M in unusual calls across 18 contracts. The anchor: $6.0M at the 375 strike (39x V/OI, Aug 28), 5.4% OTM. Stock surged 6.66% today, completing a 2.15% recovery over 8 days from the 318.57 low. Call flow has grown steadily ($7.3M → $7.4M → $11.4M) with PCR dropping to 0.33. Yesterday's bullish bet was right (+6.66%).
AAPL (score 56) — $53.8M in unusual calls, TRO confirmed, with 1647x V/OI on a 3-strike cluster. Heavy buying at 302 (249x V/OI, Aug 10), 305 (126x V/OI, Sep 4), and 340 (1.6x V/OI but $2.6M, Aug 21). The stock fell 3.12% today and is down 5.81% over 9 days — these calls are buying the dip. But the bearish side also has $35.2M in puts (244x V/OI), making AAPL the most contested name on the tape.
AMZN (score 50) — $33.6M in unusual calls, led by $12.4M at the 280 strike (2.2x V/OI, Oct 16). The stock's 6.35% bounce today was the largest single-day move in its 9-day trajectory. Call flow is substantial but the V/OI ratios are modest compared to the put side (675x vs 170x), and the bearish score (55) outranks the bullish (50).
TSLA (score 47) — $16.2M in unusual calls, with $4.3M at the 310 strike (1.6x V/OI, Aug 21). The stock is down 18.57% over 9 days (380.14 → 309.55) but has stabilized with two consecutive up days. Call flow has declined from $56.4M (7/30) to $16.3M, suggesting conviction is fading even as the stock attempts to base.
The Oracle Read
The tape is flashing two conflicting signals: mega-cap calls are betting the bounce has legs (GOOG, AMZN, MSFT), but index-level put flow is relentless (SPY PCR 2.10, IWM PCR 8.85). IWM is the cleanest read — three straight days of heavy put accumulation, score 73, and the 274/277 put wall ($22.7M combined) sits just 5-6% below spot. The mega-cap bounce looks like a short-squeeze within a broader distribution pattern; the persistent SPY put buying at deep OTM strikes (635, 707) suggests smart money is hedging for a move that hasn't happened yet.
Names to Watch at the Open
- IWM ↓ — 274 put wall ($13.2M at 142x V/OI), 5.8% OTM. Third day of heavy put flow, PCR 8.85.
- GOOG ↑ — 375 call ($6.0M at 39x V/OI, Aug 28), 5.4% OTM. Call flow accelerating, PCR 0.33.
- AMD ↓ — 465 put ($4.2M at 1023x V/OI, Sep 11). Stock down 12% in 8 days, put flow doubling.
- AAPL ⇅ — contested: $53.8M calls vs $35.2M puts. 300 put ($18.3M) vs 340 call cluster.
- SPY ↓ — 635 put ($29.4M at 217x V/OI), 15% OTM tail hedge. PCR 2.10, highest on tape.
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Index ETF | $27.9M | 610× | 4 | $23.1M | 273–277 | 2026-08-21 | 73 🔥 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMD | Technology | $8.5M | 1023× | 2 | $4.6M | 460–465 | 2026-09-11 | 56 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $15.2M | 675× | 3 | $8.3M | 265–270 | 2026-08-21 | 55 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| META | Communication Services | $5.9M | 170× | 4 | $3.8M | 542.5–550 | 2026-09-04 | 54 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| SPY | Index ETF | $130.2M | 900× | 14 | $39.9M | 733–747 | 2026-09-30 | 50 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $35.2M | 244× | 3 | $20.0M | 295–300 | 2026-10-16 | 46 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $12.6M | 121× | 4 | $6.8M | 457.5–465 | 2026-10-16 | 44 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| LLY | Health Care | $22.7M | 10× | 5 | $12.6M | 1130–1150 | 2026-08-14 | 42 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $41.3M | 81× | 13 | $17.0M | 680–692 | 2026-08-21 | 40 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| CHTR | Communication Services | $0.8M | 285× | 3 | $0.4M | 128–130 | 2026-09-04 | 35 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | |
| INTC | Technology | $2.3M | 124× | 3 | $1.1M | 91–92 | 2026-09-04 | 35 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| GOOG | Communication Services | $4.4M | 94× | 2 | $1.4M | 362.5–367.5 | 2026-08-21 | 35 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| TGT | Consumer Discretionary | $2.0M | 6× | 2 | $2.0M | 140–142 | 2026-09-18 | 35 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| MA | Financials | $1.5M | 28× | 3 | $0.7M | 567.5–575 | 2026-08-28 | 33 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| INTU | Technology | $1.4M | 14× | 2 | $1.3M | 310–315 | 2026-08-21 | 30 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Sym | Sector | Notional | V/OI | Cluster | Clust$ | Strikes | Exp | Score | D | W | M | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Index ETF | $3.0M | 73× | 6 | $2.6M | 288–293 | 2026-08-10 | 64 ⚠️ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| GOOG | Communication Services | $11.4M | 82× | 2 | $6.9M | 370–375 | 2026-08-28 | 59 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| AAPL | Technology | $53.8M | 1647× | 3 | $25.2M | 300–305 | 2026-08-14 | 56 ⚠️ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | $33.6M | 170× | 3 | $20.2M | 280–285 | 2026-10-16 | 50 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| SPY | Index ETF | $108.2M | 400× | 14 | $54.6M | 742–756 | 2026-10-30 | 49 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | $16.2M | 13× | 3 | $10.7M | 307.5–312.5 | 2026-08-21 | 47 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| QQQ | Index ETF | $48.5M | 136× | 14 | $23.1M | 684–697 | 2026-08-31 | 45 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| COST | Consumer Staples | $2.8M | 25× | 4 | $1.4M | 925–942.5 | 2026-08-21 | 45 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| MSFT | Technology | $33.7M | 16× | 2 | $26.5M | 500–505 | 2026-10-16 | 41 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| AMD | Technology | $5.5M | 150× | 3 | $1.9M | 475–482.5 | 2026-08-10 | 41 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| MS | Financials | $5.4M | 167× | 1 | $5.2M | 180 | 2026-08-21 | 41 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| GOOGL | Communication Services | $8.3M | 27× | 3 | $3.5M | 352.5–357.5 | 2026-08-12 | 38 · | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| JNJ | Health Care | $3.4M | 15× | 2 | $3.0M | 265–270 | 2026-09-18 | 37 · | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | |
| CAT | Industrials | $3.8M | 46× | 2 | $1.5M | 860–870 | 2026-09-04 | 37 · | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | |
| LLY | Health Care | $3.2M | 63× | 4 | $1.2M | 1110–1130 | 2026-09-18 | 37 · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ✅ TRO |
| Sector | Names | PCR_v | PCR_o | UnusualPut$ | UnusualVol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 15 | 0.43 | 0.67 | $67.0M | 82932 | 🟡 Caution |
| Health Care | 14 | 0.57 | 0.63 | $26.5M | 7915 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 0.33 | 0.58 | $19.5M | 39093 | 🟡 Caution |
| Communication Services | 10 | 0.46 | 0.91 | $16.2M | 22409 | 🟡 Caution |
| Financials | 18 | 0.78 | 0.56 | $9.7M | 6297 | 🟡 Caution |
| Industrials | 12 | 0.94 | 0.81 | $6.6M | 7630 | 🟡 Caution |
| Consumer Staples | 10 | 0.43 | 0.88 | $1.1M | 319 | 🟡 Caution |
| Materials | 2 | 1.32 | 1.07 | $0.6M | 722 | 🟡 Caution |
| Utilities | 3 | 0.39 | 0.80 | $0.2M | 2517 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Energy | 3 | 0.36 | 0.44 | $0.2M | 390 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| Real Estate | 2 | 0.41 | 0.89 | $0.0M | 0 | 🟢 Risk-On |
| ETF | PCR_v | PCR_o | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2.10 | 1.46 | $130.2M | 🔴 Defensive |
| QQQ | 1.25 | 1.26 | $41.3M | 🔴 Defensive |
| IWM | 8.85 | 2.30 | $27.9M | 🔴 Defensive |
| Sym | Strike | Exp | Vol | OI | Vol/OI | Notional | OTM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 300 | 2026-10-16 | 18235 | 7310 | 2.5× | $18.3M | 2.8% |
| AMD | 465 | 2026-09-11 | 1023 | 1 | 1023.0× | $4.2M | 2.3% |
| LLY | 1215 | 2026-08-14 | 410 | 96 | 4.3× | $3.7M | -5.8% |
| LLY | 1205 | 2026-08-14 | 408 | 44 | 9.3× | $3.3M | -4.9% |
| AMZN | 270 | 2026-08-21 | 4432 | 1745 | 2.5× | $3.3M | 0.5% |
| JPM | 360 | 2026-09-18 | 2032 | 200 | 10.2× | $3.0M | -2.3% |
| MSFT | 460 | 2026-10-16 | 1249 | 329 | 3.8× | $2.7M | 0.7% |
| LLY | 1130 | 2026-08-21 | 585 | 113 | 5.2× | $2.5M | 1.6% |
| AAPL | 285 | 2026-09-18 | 6763 | 3865 | 1.7× | $2.4M | 7.6% |
| UNH | 420 | 2026-09-18 | 1148 | 556 | 2.1× | $2.2M | -1.3% |
| AAPL | 347.5 | 2026-08-12 | 580 | 330 | 1.8× | $2.2M | -12.6% |
| AAPL | 307.5 | 2026-08-14 | 3537 | 61 | 58.0× | $2.1M | 0.3% |
| ADBE | 255 | 2026-09-11 | 956 | 259 | 3.7× | $1.9M | -1.9% |
| AAPL | 310 | 2026-08-14 | 2608 | 1523 | 1.7× | $1.9M | -0.5% |
| AAPL | 347.5 | 2026-08-10 | 500 | 250 | 2.0× | $1.9M | -12.6% |
Total unusual put notional: $147.8M across 11 sectors. Sectors with 🔴 Defensive signal have BOTH high PCR (>1.2) AND >$2M of unusual put buying — institutions are actively hedging there. 🟢 Risk-On means call-heavy with no defensive flow — the safest put-selling ground.
How to read the Sector Tape
The sector tape aggregates the daily option chain by GICS sector. For each sector it computes the put/call ratio (PCR) and the total notional of unusual put prints (contracts where today's volume exceeds existing open interest by 50%+). The signal tells you where institutions are positioning defensively vs. where they're comfortable being long.
- PCR (put/call ratio) — put volume ÷ call volume (or OI). Above 1.0 = puts trade more than calls (defensive). Below 0.8 = call-heavy (risk-on). The OI version is more stable; the volume version is more reactive to today's flow.
- UnusualPut$ — total notional ($ = volume × mid × 100) of put contracts where volume > 1.5× open interest AND notional > $50K. This is the UnusualWhales signal: new positions opening rather than existing ones trading hands. Large values = someone is paying up for protection.
- Signal — derived from PCR + unusual notional. 🔴 Defensive (PCR > 1.2 AND > $2M unusual) = heavy hedging — be cautious selling puts there. 🟡 Caution = some defensive flow. 🟢 Risk-On (PCR < 0.9, < $500K unusual) = calmest put-selling ground. ⚪ Neutral = mixed.
How to use it with ChainScan
The sector tape is the weather report above the single-name scanner. A bull-put-spread TAKE verdict on a name in a 🟢 Risk-On sector is high confidence — the tape confirms nobody's hedging there. A TAKE verdict on a name in a 🔴 Defensive sector should be downgraded: institutions are actively buying puts at the strikes you'd be selling, so either skip the trade, go further OTM (0.15 delta instead of 0.20), or shorten DTE to get ahead of the hedging flow. The ETF block (SPY/QQQ/IWM) gives the macro read — if QQQ is 🔴 Defensive, every tech name on the ChainScan table carries extra risk.
The top-prints table
Shows the 15 largest unusual put prints across all sectors, sorted by notional. This is where you see the actual whale activity: which symbol, which strike, which expiration, and how much money is behind it. A single $50M put print could be one institution hedging a long book (not necessarily bearish) or a fresh directional bet. When you see clusters across multiple strikes and names in the same sector, the institutional interpretation gets stronger.
🎯 Smart Money — directional-bet detection (both sides)
Two tables surface institutional directional bets. 🐻 Bearish bets (unusual put activity): names where put buying looks like a coordinated bear bet. 🐂 Bullish bets (unusual call activity): names where call buying looks like a coordinated bull bet. The conviction score separates directional bets from dispersed hedging using three features: (1) V/OI breadth — fraction of notional in contracts with V/OI > 20×, discounted by sample size; (2) strike concentration — fraction of notional in the dominant strike cluster (within 2% of spot); (3) notional scale — saturates at $5M. Score ≥70 = strong directional bet, ≥50 = moderate, ≥30 = some clustering.
The TRO columns (D/W/M) show the trend on daily/weekly/monthly timeframes. ✅ TRO Confirmed: for bearish bets, daily AND weekly both ▼ (downtrend); for bullish bets, daily AND weekly both ▲ (uptrend). The highest-conviction signals are bets in the direction TRO already confirms. A high score with TRO NOT confirmed means the option market may be ahead of the trend indicator — an early warning.
Example (bearish): LLY on 2026-07-29 had $27.7M unusual puts, V/OI up to 284×, concentrated in 5 strikes within $20 of spot, placed at the top of a 5-day rally. TRO daily red since July 15. LLY fell 4% the next day. Example (bullish): AMD on 2026-07-29 had $28M unusual calls at the bottom of a 22% crash week ($543→$425). The calls were concentrated in Aug 7 expiry (through earnings Aug 4). AMD bounced +15% the next day on a Microsoft-led chip rebound and a $14B Core Scientific deal. Both sides of the tape are predictive.
Caveat: open interest lags one day (reported from the previous close). Volume can be driven by a single large order as easily as by distributed flow. Hedging is not the same as bearish — a put buyer may be insuring a long position, not speculating. Use the tape as a confirming colour on top of technical analysis, not as a standalone forecast.